Political Smoke and Mirrors.

“All Congresses and Parliaments have a kindly feeling for idiots, and a compassion for them, on account of personal experience and heredity.”  MT

The drums of war are beating. The ISIS threat is whipping public support into a frenzy. With short memories we tend to forget (1) that we created the mess in the first place (See: my six part series that ran from Sept. 27 thru October 7) and (2) waging war is THE most expensive matter in which any nation can get engaged. The glaring hypocrisy here is that the same people who have clamored for reducing the deficit are the very same people who now ignore the costs of waging war (to attempt to undo the mess they created) and want us (other people of course) to put “boots on the ground.”

A most enlightening web site is The National Priorities. The site shows, in real-time, what we are spending to fight wars and what we’re giving up. The Federal Debt is concerning and presently stands at $17.877 trillion, and rising. For that reason both political parties have established a priority of reducing the debt, but in very different ways. For the most part the Republican approach is to slash social programs, give greater tax breaks to the wealthy and increase discretionary defense funding.

Most recently House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan has released his Pathway to Prosperity budget proposal which is filled with assumptions that will undoubtedly never materialize. Nevertheless his estimate of reducing the deficit and reaching a balanced budget in 10 years is most appealing to Republican voters, during an election year. A couple of seeming pros to his plan include eliminating the Affordable Care Act (Obama Care) and increasing discretionary defense spending by $483 billon over the next tens years. We must bear in mind that Mr. Ryan’s proposal was built before the ISIS threat became front and center. So let’s take a close look at just these two proposals without considering the devastating impact on citizens resulting from his plan to slash social programs.

According to the CBO (Congressional Budget Office), at this stage, contrary to the gloom and doom projections of the Republicans, Obama Care is resulting in a net savings to the government of about $8 billion per year. To eliminate this program (as Mr. Ryan proposes) would not save money, but would instead end up adding to the federal debt by that $8 billion per year ($80 billion over the ten years). Nevertheless it’s human nature that once someone takes a stand they will continue to demand that reality conform to their views.

The other proposal (increase discretionary defense spending by $483 billon) may be woefully inadequate if we persist in waging another war. In his just released book—Worthy Fights: A Memoir of Leadership in War and Peace—Leon Panetta says,“Americans should be braced for a long battle against the brutal terrorist group Islamic State that will test U.S. resolve—and the leadership of the commander in chief.” And what does Panetta mean by a “long battle?” His best guess is 30 years. Given that extraordinary period of time, it would be worth our while to count the cost. 

In most everyone’s considered opinion our current campaign of bombing only is costing U.S. taxpayers $3.12 billion/year. Add ten years of that cost ($31.2 billion) to Mr. Ryan’s $483 billon and we’re looking at some serious pocket change ($514.2 billion—over ½ trillion dollars). This, of course, assumes current bombing levels which nobody expects to continue. The costs and sacrifices will just increase, as they did in Vietnam. “Mission Creep” is always a reality to which no politician will ever admit . 

THE key fiscal issue here is, “where will this extra money come from if Mr. Ryan’s Pathway to Prosperity is adopted?” If it is, the middle class will be obliterated, everyone except the super wealthy will join the bottom financial tier (with no benefits) and the wealthy elite will continue (as they do currently) avoiding taxes altogether. 

Typical of political projections, it’s all smoke and mirrors. “Figures can’t lie, but liars will figure.” MT